The 2020 Grammys: Predictions, Snubs, and A Short Recap

Everybody has a ‘thing.’ You know, those topics that when conversation dies down, you know they can rely on one particular subject because that is the other person’s ‘thing.’ I like to think I have a lot of things. But I think there is probably only one that many know me for: music. Not playing music, no, that would require a modicum of talent (I’m trying). But listening to music. I make a point to listen to as much as I can, rarely ever putting parameters on what I am willing to listen to (sorry, Eminem surprise album, you are going to have to wait though).

2019 was an interesting year in music. There were hits of viral proportions that relayed into Grammy nominations, a crop of young talent making an imprint from Lil Nas X to Billie Eilish, and electric returns from previous nominees and winners like Vampire Weekend, Taylor Swift, Ariana Grande, and Bon Iver. Awards are always bound to leave artists and albums out just by sheer volume of the music released in a year, but this time of year always feels like a good time to not only award some of the best music that came out, but to recognize talent, hard work, and excellence across a variety of categories. You’ll quickly note that though these are a crop of predictions, even being up for an award is an impressive feat. It makes me genuinely happy for artists that get recognized generally for the incredible work they do. Now let’s get into this.

I was far more riled up about Grammy nominations before I realized just how odd the timeline is for eligible albums. Anything released after August 31, 2019 is not in consideration for a Grammy at the moment. Which – hopefully – explains the absence of the excellent albums from Angel Olsen, Nick Cave and The Bad Seeds, Michael Kiwanuka, and more. (Seriously, wait till I get to this point next year if Angel Olsen isn’t nominated for All Mirrors.) That does not mean there weren’t snubs though. The Grammys have weird and quite antiquated genre definitions, so that will also factor in snub discussion.

Record of the Year and Song of the Year

The distinction between these two seems small, but they are two different recognition aspects of songs. Record of the Year prioritizes songs as a whole from the production to vocals, while Song of the Year prioritizes songwriting specifically. Given its exceptional staying power after absolutely exploding onto the scene, there’s little doubt in my mind that “Old Town Road” gets the nod for the Record of the Year.

Song is a bit tougher. Given both Billie Eilish and Lizzo are up for basically every award they could possibly win, I except them to each take home quite a few prizes. I think this one is a race between two artists. My gut initially said “Bad Guy,” but I am going to swing the other way and say Lizzo takes home this award for “Truth Hurts.” If you’re looking for a dark horse in the battles between Lizzo and Billie Eilish, watch Ariana Grande. thank u, next was her best album yet and I cannot see her getting completely shut out for it.

Album of the Year

This could go a few different places as there are quite a few strong contenders for it. I like Lil Nas X, but I don’t think 7 stands a chance here. My initial feeling was Lana Del Rey’s Norman F***ing Rockwell will take this one home. Not only was it a thunderous return for Lana, it also marks Lana’s best venture into that space between her eclectic, sometimes overwrought style and pop accessibility. It really is a masterful album. I could see Billie Eilish taking this one home too, as well as Ariana Grande. If you want a dark horse here though, watch Bon Iver.

Best New Artist

This is a solid category from ROSALÍA to Tank and The Bangas. But if we are being honest, this is a race between three artists – Billie Eilish, Lizzo, and Lil Nas X. I don’t think Lil Nas X had a strong enough showing beyond “Old Town Road” to grab this award. Between Billie and Lizzo, I am going with Lizzo again here. She was everywhere this year. And not just one song either. There were three or four tracks off of Cuz I Love You that were mega hits.

Best Pop Solo Performance

This is Lizzo’s to lose with “Truth Hurts.” She is going to be the heavy hitter in most categories, but I think this one especially.

Best Pop Duo/Group Performance

Another give-me with the remix of “Old Town Road” featuring Billy Ray Cyrus. The buildup to this remix is unlike any other in recent memory. And it delivered. Billy Ray Cyrus brought the same fun, carefree energy that Lil Nas X had on the original. This will be a fun one for both of them to win. After I wrote this particularly piece, I revisited my thoughts on this. If “Old Town Road” wins Record of the Year, I could see voters not wanting to give it this award too. If that is the case, look for this to go to Shawn Mendes and Camilla Cabello’s “Señorita.”

Best Pop Vocal Album

I think this is where Billie Eilish shines with When We Fall Asleep, Where Do We Go? I could absolutely see Ariana taking it (and that’s admittedly where my vote would go if I had one), but Billie constructed a real good album besides just songs like “Bad Guy” that made it big. This will be her moment to get recognized for that.

Now we are going to get to the more specific genre awards. Feel free to scroll to the genres you are interested in. I opted to discuss ones that featured snubs or that I was well versed enough in to actually make a prediction.

Best Dance/Electronic Album

I am going to make sure that I don’t just rant over some of these genre categories. But this is bad. First of all, dance and electronic are two different genres? They are undoubtedly related, but so are American roots and country and we have the presence of mind to separate those. To limit that to only the small number nominated here does a disservice to an enormous and expansive genre. Holly Herndon’s and Vanishing Twin’s records should have gotten some recognition here too. This one feels like a popularity contest as opposed to digging in and seeing what electronic music had to offer. As for my prediction? Look for pioneering duo The Chemical Brothers (No Geography) to take this one home.

Best Rock Performance

To be frank: all of the rock categories seem to mismanaged. Not because artists like Brittany Howard and Gary Clark Jr. don’t deserve recognition – they do. But if there is an issue limiting all of dance and electronic music to four or five nominees, I don’t know how in the world we do that for ‘Rock’ which could encompass basically everything? That being said, Gary Clark Jr. is going to grab this category for an absolutely filthy “This Land” song. It is unapologetically patriotic in a damning way and features of some of Clark Jr.’s patented excellent guitar work.

Best Rock Song

Okay, I’m not sure how this is even nominated in this particular category in that it sounds much closer to folk than rock or even alternative, but I don’t have Vampire Weekend winning much here for a good album from last year, so I think they grab this award for “Harmony Hall.” I’d also like to acknowledge those opening notes are some of my favorite to any song released in the past year. It sounds like you’re entering an enchanted forest. This is a songwriting though, and I still they grab it.

Best Rock Album

This is my least favorite group of nominees. What the hell are we doing here? No offense to Cage the Elephant and this crew but this is a sad bunch. Of all the albums that were released in the past year that are 51% new rock, hard rock, or metal (whatever that actually means), this is the best we could get? FONTAINES D.C. deserved some recognition here for their debut, Dogrel, a vicious and beautiful punk record. Jenny Lewis not being recognized here for On the Line is a terrible misstep. I also get that we are not huge in nominating foreign language albums in categories not specifically designed for that, but CHAI’s PUNK was excellent with some raucous and fun guitar work and infectious hooks. There are even some more middle-of-the-road choices (sonically) that put great records this year including Oso Oso, Girlpool, Indoor Pets, and more. I have no interest in disparaging the albums that did get nominated, but to open up a category like “Best Rock Album” then refuse to recognize some great rock records for established names kind of stinks. Anyway, my prediction is that this one is actually going to go to The Cranberries’ In the End in a long overdue recognition of the band’s work. (Looking back at the nominees in 1994, it feels like a huge oversight that The Cranberries debut wasn’t nominated for…anything.)

Best Alternative Album

This category is the toughest for me. Not because I don’t know have any idea who is going to win – I think it will Bon Iver. But that this category feels quite sparse given how many great alternative records came out last year. Bon Iver’s i,i is my personal favorite record that came out last year. I didn’t think it was the best record, and this category is where that record would shine. Weyes Blood’s Titanic Rising was not nominated for anything and it should have – at the very least – been in this category. That being said, it is absolutely awesome that Big Thief is getting recognized here. They put out TWO great albums last year. You should listen to both. They are great in quite different ways, never straying from who the band is. There are so many snubs I wish I could expound upon here, but I wanted to hit on a few in particular. Cate Le Bon’s Reward, Purple Mountains’ Purple Mountains, and The Twilight Sad’s IT WON/T BE LIKE THIS ALL THE TIME. Cate Le Bon’s record is so odd, I think I only grasped how potent her songwriting, arrangement, and vocals were on that second listen. “Sad Nudes,” “Home to You,” and “Miami” are just some of the highlights. Purple Mountains’ debut was a wonderfully dreary existential ride when it was first released in July. When David Berman took his own life in August, the album took on an even more somber tone. The album is filled with hopelessness, nihilism, and still a heart that Berman always brought to his work dating back to his late 90s work in Silver Jews. Finally, The Twilight Sad’s 2019 record infused punk music and synth to extraordinary effect on tracks like “Shooting Dennis Hopper Shooting” and “The Arbor” (which sounds like it could be a New Order track). If you can’t tell, this is the category I was most excited about and though some great albums are certainly being recognized, there are some glaring gaps in the nominees, especially when it comes to female artists excelling in the genre.

Best Urban Contemporary Album

The worst name for any genre category. Why even refer to the category as this? What the hell is urban music? Anyway, this is a walk for Lizzo’s Cuz I Love You. And rightly so, but Steve Lacy deserves some credit here too. He put in some great work on Vampire Weekend’s Father of the Bride, but here he gets recognition for his funky, infectious, and righteous debut Apollo XXI. That made me so happy. Seriously, try to resist that falsetto on “Playground.”

Best Rap Performance

I am between “Suge” from DaBaby and “Middle Child” from J. Cole on this one, but DaBaby’s meteoric rise to me means he is going to walk away with something. Here is where he wins. For posterity’s sake, “Suge” is a better song than “Middle Child” anyway.

Best Rap/Sung Performance

This might be the category that I struggled with the most. This could go any possible way. “Panini”, “The London”, “Ballin”, and “Drip Too Hard” were all huge hits. I just cannot shake the feeling that this one is going to go to the collaboration between Nipsey Hussle and John Legend on “Higher.”

Best Rap Song

For me, this is much easier than the previous too rap categories. “A Lot” wasn’t just a hit, it was a great song. Which isn’t to say the other tracks I have mentioned as big hits weren’t, but that this one’s status as a huge hit and a great song solidifies its position to win this award.

Best Rap Album

Maybe I am just trying to will this one into existence, but I am going with Tyler, the Creator’s IGOR here. This is the only award Tyler is up for, IGOR was one of the best albums of 2019, and while the competition certainly isn’t bad, it is missing albums like Freddie Gibbs & Madlib’s Bandana, Megan Thee Stallion’s Fever, Little Simz’ Grey AREA (my personal best rap album), Dave’s PSYCHODRAMA, Rapsody’s Eve, or even Denzel Curry’s ZUU. Book IGOR. Shout to YBN Cordae also though, because that album was an enjoyable solo debut, and he is only going to get better.

Best American Roots Performance

I am rolling with “I’m On My Way” from the collaboration between Rhiannon Giddens and Francesco Turrisi in this category. The selection of this particular song from this record is interesting to me, given I don’t think it’s the best or most popular, but this record flew under the radar and Rhiannon Giddens continues to be absolutely excellent.

Best Contemporary Blues

A carryover from some of the rock song awards, Gary Clark Jr. finds his album place in the contemporary blues category. I think it could probably fit in either category though Clark Jr.’s blues influences are plentiful and prominent on This Land. I don’t think there is a question he wins this one.

Best World Music Album

Listen to Burna Boy’s African Giant. It doesn’t matter if it wins best World Music album. Go listen to it. It’s an excellent album full of rapping, dancehall beats, and so much more. Burna Boy has carved out a singular voice for himself on an international stage. I also wouldn’t really refer to this as world music in the sense of the genre, but that is a discussion for another time about the award show’s inability to pin down exactly how to give out awards to non-American artists and genres. African Giant is my pick here, and win or lose, Burna Boy has more than earned this recognition.

Producer of the Year

Another no-brainer for me is Jack Antonoff winning this award. Some of the other producers have some good work on this list but none even come close to Antonoff’s work. Produciton on Kevin Abstract’s Arizona Baby, Taylor Swift’s Lover, and Lana Del Rey’s Norman F***ing Rockwell put him head and shoulders above the rest of the competition and those aren’t all of his production credits from the year.

I will make sure to update this post with a follow-up on thoughts, how I fared in predictions, and some links to the work that I shouted out as I went through categories. For now, enjoy the Grammys, I hope your favorite artists win, and in light of much of the news coming out today, hug a loved one and let the people you care about know that you care. Have a wonderful night.

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Well, I went 10/21. A whopping 48%. I whiffed on all four major categories, but more than that, I paid the price for missing hard on Billie Eilish. She was a rock star on Sunday and I didn’t predict she would go so hard. I certainly still think that Lana should have walked away with some award for Norman F***ing Rockwell and was disappointed that did not happen. However, it was awesome to see Billie and her brother’s work celebrated. Next year, I think I am going to do more comprehensive predictions to see if I can up my percentage, because I missed on I think every one that I said was a gimme besides “Old Town Road Remix” and Lizzo winning Solo Pop Performance. I couldn’t even manage to get Best Rock Album after I made a fuss about the way genre works. For what it’s worth, Tyler the Creator also echoed the sentiments around how the awards define genres after the show and his Best Rap Album win. He was right. As music evolves, bends genres, and involves a more diverse audience, so must the Grammys too if it wants to survive (or at least adequately award the artists who deserve it). This year, the Grammys made a step in the right direction by recognizing the works of Billie Eilish, Lil Nas X, and a variety of artists who don't fit neatly in a box. Let’s hope the celebration of music across genres becomes a larger trend and not just a deviation from the norm.